«Public Administration Issues» Journal,

Post. address:
National Research University
Higher School of Economics
20 Myasnitskaya Str., Moscow 101000, Russian Federation
Location address:
of. 307, 4/2, Slavyanskaya sq., Moscow 109074, Russian Federation

Tel./fax: 7 (495) 772-95-90, ext. 12631

E-mail: vgmu@hse.ru 


Major Indexing

Research and educational journal
Published quarterly since 2007
ISSN 1999-5431
E-ISSN 2409-5095

Igor Belyakov1
  • 1 Ph.D. (in Physics and Mathematics), Master of Economics, Head of the Financial Markets Department of the Economic Expert Group; Senior Research Fellow, Center for Budget Analysis and Forecasting, Research Financial Institute, 3/2 Nastasyinsky Lane, 127006 Moscow, Russia.


2022. No. 4. P. 30–61 [issue contents]

International experience shows that creating large infrastructure objects (as a rule, with state participation) is often accompanied by significant cost overruns. Importance of this issue is especially high due to responsibility for the use of public resources. The article reviews most recognized methods of the project risks evaluation that play a key role in assessing the total cost of large and long-term projects. Approaches of international organizations, official documents of selected developed countries and requirements for Russian infrastructure projects with state funding are compared. Particular attention is paid to a comprehensive quantitative risk evaluation, which is not sufficiently represented in the Russian official methodology, based on Monte-Carlo simulation modelling. The study considers some practical aspects of applying this method for conditional cost estimation. As an illustration, a model calculation of the impact of risks on the indicators of one of the latest PPP infrastructure projects (CRR-1) is given.

Citation: Belyakov, I. V. (2022) ‘On quantitative risk assessment of infrastructural projects with state participati on’, Public Administration Issues, 4, pp. 30–60. (In Russian). DOI: 10.17323/1999-5431-2022-0-4-30-60
ISSN 1999-5431
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