Federal Service for Labour and Employment (Rostrud) adopted risk-based regulation and enforcement principles by installing a system of inspections targeted according to the object’s risk profile. However, the criteria that are used to evaluate the object’ risk ranking and to assign risk categories have not been revised since 2017. The purpose of this study is to analyze the Rostrud inspection prioritization system in 2017-2023, identify its weaknesses and evaluate how external factors (two periods of inspection moratoria, introduction of prophylactics measures) affected the results of inspection activity.

Statistical analysis based on data obtained from Rostrud, Federal State Statistics Service, SPARK-Interfax, Unified register of control (supervisory) measures and Unified register of inspections, demonstrates that companies have been moved from one risk group to another intensively during 2017-2023 (about 15% of them have changed the risk category drastically during only one year of observation). It also has revealed the number of shortcomings in Rosrtud risk evaluation methodology that led to estimation bias and miscategorization of supervised organizations. At the same time, the connection between both prophylactics and inspection prioritization and risk category is weak, while their results have little influence on risk category revision.

The study resulted in recommendations about ways the risk categorization methodology can be improved with minimal additional costs.