ФОРСАЙТ В ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОМ УПРАВЛЕНИИ НАУЧНО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКИМ РАЗВИТИЕМ: СРАВНЕНИЕ ПОДХОДОВ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КОРЕЯ И ЯПОНИИ
Ключевые слова:
управление научно-технологическим развитием, форсайт науки и технологий, научно обоснованное управление, институциализация форсайта, упреждающее управление, глобальные тренды
Аннотация
Глобальные вызовы, риски экономической безопасности, социально-демографические и экологические процессы, ускорение технологического развития формируют качественно новый контекст для государственного
управления и спрос на научно обоснованное принятие решений. Рост интереса
к упреждающему, прогностически ориентированному управлению предопределил активное использование форсайта науки и технологий. Однако в практике
государственного управления научно-технологическим развитием сохраняется
проблема «разрыва» между такого рода исследованиями и применением их результатов. Актуальность темы обусловлена необходимостью поиска способов
институциализации форсайта в государственном управлении для преодоления
этого разрыва.
Автором предложен подход к анализу институциализации форсайта в сетевом государственном управлении научно-технологическим развитием и определению причин пробелов между форсайтом и практикой госуправления. Подход
основан на наборе параметров, относящихся к четырем направлениям институциализации: организационному, регулятивному, нормативному и когнитивнокультурному. Проведен сравнительный кейс-анализ интеграции форсайта в государственное управление научно-технологическим развитием в Республике
Корея и Японии. На основе сравнения определены характеристики оптимальной
модели институциализации форсайта, причины «пробелов» между результатами
долгосрочного прогнозирования и их реальным применением в государственном
управлении.
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Литература
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развитием на основе форсайта: опыт Японии // Вопросы государственного
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5431-2025-0-3-183-211
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17&type=chapterpdf (дата обращения: 11.01.2026).
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In: Gokhberg L., Meissner D., Sokolov A. (ed). Deploying Foresight for Policy
and Strategy Makers. Science, Technology and Innovation Studies. 2016. Springer,
Cham. DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-25628-3_10
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around the world // EUISS yearbook of European security. 2013. P. 7–31. URL:
https://www.iss.europa.eu/sites/default/fi les/2.1_Foresight_in_governments.pdf
(дата обращения: 22.01.2026).
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Knowledge on Policy: The Role of Policymaking Conditions // Minerva. 2022.
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P. 14–32. DOI:10.1108/14636680910982412
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Priorities in Science and Technology Policy – an International comparison. Commissioned by the Austrian Council for Research and Technology Development.
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in_STpolicy.pdf (дата обращения: 24.01.2026).
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A systematic review // Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions. 2022.
Vol. 43. P. 14–40. DOI:10.1016/j.eist.2022.03.002
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10.1177/1946756718805219
16. Heo K., Seo Y. Anticipatory governance for newcomers: lessons learned from the
UK, the Netherlands, Finland, and Korea // European Journal of Futures Research.
2021a. Vol. 9, no. 9. DOI:10.1186/s40309-021-00179-y
17. Heo K., Seo Y. Applying foresight to policy agenda-setting: A successful case
in South Korea // Futures. 2021b. Vol. 127. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2021.102701
18. Hustedt T., Seyfried M. Co‐Ordination Across Internal Organizational Boundaries:
How the EU Commission Co‐Ordinates Climate Policies // Journal of European Public
Policy. 2016. Vol. 23, no. 6. P. 888–905. DOI:10.1080/13501763.2015.1074605.
19. Kharrazi A., Kakuwa M. Scenario projects in Japanese government: Strategic approaches for overcoming psychological and institutional barriers // Futures. 2017.
Vol. 86. P. 18–26. DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2016.08.003
20. Kang D., Jang W., Kim Y., Jeon J. Comparing National Innovation System among
the USA, Japan, and Finland to Improve Korean Deliberation Organization for National Science and Technology Policy // Journal of Open Innovation: Technology,
Market, and Complexity. 2019. Vol. 5, no. 4. DOI:10.3390/joitmc5040082
21. Krogh A.H., Triantafi llou P. Developing New Public Governance as a public
management reform model // Public Management Review. 2024. Vol. 26, no. 10.
P. 3040–3056. DOI:10.1080/14719037.2024.2313539
22. Martin B. Foresight in science and technology // Technology Analysis and Strategic
Management. 1995. Vol. 7, no. 2. P. 139–168. DOI:10.1080/09537329508524202
23. Monteiro B., Dal Borgo R. Supporting decision making with strategic foresight:
An emerging framework for proactive and prospective governments. OECD Working Papers on Public Governance. OECD Publishing, Paris. 2023. No. 63. DOI:
10.1787/1d78c791-en
24. OECD. Foresight and Anticipatory Governance in Practice. 2022. URL: https://
www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/about/programmes/strategic-foresight/
foresight-and-anticipatory-governance-2021.pdf (дата обращения: 24.01.2026).
25. OECD. OECD Science, Technology and Innovation Outlook 2025: Driving Change
in a Shifting Landscape. 2025a. OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI:10.1787/5fe57b90-en
26. OECD. Building Anticipatory Capacity with Strategic Foresight in Government:
Lessons from Lithuania, Italy, and Malta. 2025b. OECD Public Governance Reviews, OECD Publishing, Paris. DOI:10.1787/d7eb0bb6-en
27. OECD. Challenges and opportunities of mission-oriented innovation policy
in Korea. OECD Science, Technology and Industry Policy Paper. 2025c. No. 172.
URL: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2025/03/
challenges-and-opportunities-of-mission-oriented-innovation-policy-inkorea_22a1c12e/d725304c-en.pdf (дата обращения: 24.01.2026).
28. Oh S.-H., Lee K.-J. Governance system of governmental R&D programs: Formation
and transformation of the Framework Act on Science and Technology in Korea // Science and Public Policy. 2013. Vol. 40, no. 4. P. 492–503. DOI:10.1093/scipol/sct002
29. Osborne D. Reinventing government // Public Productivity & Management Review.
1993. Vol. 16, no. 4. P. 349–356. DOI:10.2307/3381012
30. Osborne S. (2010) New public governance? Emerging perspectives on the theory
and practice of public governance. London, Routledge.
31. Ouma-Mugabe J., Botha A., Letaba P. Institutionalizing foresight in science, technology, and innovation in sub-Saharan Africa // Development Policy Review. 2024.
Vol. 42, no. 1. DOI:10.1111/dpr.12789
32. Pierre J., Peters G. Governance, Politics, and the State. N.Y. 2000. URL: https://books.
google.ru/books/about/Governance_Politics_and_the_State.html?id=15FKEAAA
QBAJ&redir_esc=y (дата обращения: 24.01.2026).
33. Poli R. Introduction. In: Introduction to Anticipation Studies. Anticipation Science.
2017. Vol. 1. Springer, Cham. DOI:10.1007/978-3-319-63023-6_1
34. Pollitt C., Bouckaert G. Public Management Reform: A Comparative Analysis –
into the Age of Austerity. 2017. Bd. 4th ed. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
35. Priebe M., Veit S., Warnke Ph. Understanding Foresight-Policy Interactions: The
Role of Institutionalization // Futures&Foresight Studies. 2024. Vol. 7, no. 1.
DOI:10.1002/ff o2.197
36. Priebe M., Warnke Ph., Weber K.M. Setting the scene for discussing innovation
policy directions: Foresight as a practice of synchronizing // Futures. 2025. Vol. 173.
DOI:10.1016/j.futures.2025.103681
37. Ritz A., Schädeli D. The Politics of Bureaucratic Organizations. In Handbook on the
Politics of Public Administration. A. Ladner, and F. Sager (ed). 2022. P. 151–161.
Edward Elgar Publishing. DOI:10.4337/9781839109447.00021
38. Robinson D.K., Schoen A., Larédo P., Gallart J.M., Warnke P., Kuhlmann S., Ordóñez-Matamoros G. Policy lensing of future-oriented strategic intelligence: An experiment connecting foresight with decision making contexts // Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 2021. Vol. 169. DOI:10.1016/j.techfore.2021.120803
39. Sagara T. Policy Networks in Japan: Case of the Automobile Air Pollution Policies. The London School of Economics and Political Science. 2008. URL: https://
etheses.lse.ac.uk/2987/1/U615939.pdf (дата обращения: 24.01.2026).
40. Saritas O., Pace L.A., Stalpers S.I.P. Stakeholder participation and dialogue in foresight. Ch. 3. In: Participation and Interaction in Foresight. K. Borch, S. Dingli,
M. Søgaard Jørgensen (ed). Monograph Book. 2013. P. 35–69. DOI:10.4337/9781
781956137.00009
41. School of International Futures. Features of eff ective systemic foresight in governments around the world. 2021. URL: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/
media/609aa813d3bf7f2888d18fe3/effective-systemic-foresight-governmentsreport.pdf (дата обращения: 29.01.2026).
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Опубликован
2026-08-24
Как цитировать
Грибкова Д. Е. (2026). ФОРСАЙТ В ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОМ УПРАВЛЕНИИ НАУЧНО-ТЕХНОЛОГИЧЕСКИМ РАЗВИТИЕМ: СРАВНЕНИЕ ПОДХОДОВ РЕСПУБЛИКИ КОРЕЯ И ЯПОНИИ. Вопросы государственного и муниципального управления, (3), 151-176. https://doi.org/10.17323/1999-5431-2026-0-3-151-176
Выпуск
Раздел
ТЕОРИЯ И ПРАКТИКА ГОСУДАРСТВЕННОГО УПРАВЛЕНИЯ
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